🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."