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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.